Export restrictions on SMIC, Taiwan independence, Nvidia-Arm IP roll-up
The US is seriously weighing export restriction on China’s top chipmaker - SMIC, resisting the fusion of Chinese military and civilian research industrial bases, no access to US chips and equipment means no supply for China’s industry – claimed two-year stockpile, semiconductor independence is critical for global leadership, reunification with Taiwan may be China’s only option, collateral damage to the US semiconductor industry – industrial policies for support, Nvidia-Arm as a US chip IP roll-up, more sanctions, tensions in Taiwan and restrictions on US owned assets in China to come.
We see the US compute technology competition being staged in three key areas; denying the Chinese semiconductor industry from militarizing US technology, protecting the semiconductor powerhouse of Taiwan and in implementing industrial policies to support US capabilities in manufacturing semiconductors.