Caught Between Iraq and a Hard Place
US Forces are keeping Iran-Shia revolutionaries at bay, and Iraqi politicians know it. The US withdrawal enabled Iranian influence. Now Iraq needs US forces to maintain balance.
This issue of Zen on Tech comes to you directly from the heart of the Najd Desert in Saudi Arabia, where I'm going to be for the next few weeks of work. This week, I'm taking some time off to embark on a desert adventure, driving over 2000 kilometers to the Hijaz and back for a mix of sightseeing, research and Arabic language practice. For those who haven't yet, I recommend revisiting my earlier article, “Tehran Wants Control of Iraq, Not Gaza” to understand the context surrounding this piece.
The détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran has significantly shifted the balance of power in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has pulled support for political and militia forces in Iraq, allowing Iran-backed militias to gain significant control over Iraq's political, military, and judicial landscapes. Saudi Arabia is by far the largest military spender in the Middle East, and with it’s economic superiority over Tehran, appears to be comfortable with this arrangement.
Not a lot stands between an Iraq capable of setting its own national agenda or falling wholesale into Iran vassalhood. Iran aligned Shia militias within the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), now outnumbers the conventional Iraqi military, buoyed by budget boosts and electoral successes favoring Iran-leaning parties. The pervasive influence of warlords and their militias manifests through activities such as racketeering, property deals, shell companies, and siphoning off the country's oil wealth. The leaders of the various Iran backed militias have increasing influence across various area of Iraq’s government and state oil companies, however they are beholden to US military power and have constrained influence over policy making.
On the 11th of Feb the Iraqi parliament gathered to vote for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and it was a complete flop. All Sunni representatives abstained, all but two Kurdish reps abstained and nearly 100 members of the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), a dominant political bloc, abstained from voting. Only 82 SCF members out of 329 members of parliament showed up. This abstinence from voting to remove US forces underscores a consensus among Iraqi lawmakers that the U.S. military should stay. This vote reveals a tacit acknowledgment of the stabilizing role played by U.S. forces amid the country's ongoing challenges with militia influence and sectarian divisions.
The Gaza conflict and U.S. military strikes in Iraq, have tilted public opinion in the Middle East against the United States. Although Iraqi lawmakers remain cautious of Tehran's sway, Iran has leveraged these events to strengthen its support within the Iraqi population. While the U.S. relies on its military might, Iran has been expanding its intelligence, media and paramilitary influence across Iraq. This contest for influence over Iraqi governance and policymaking places Iraqi politicians in a precarious position. They must navigate the challenging task of stabilizing public sentiment, integrating militias into state security forces, and ensuring that Iraq's development trajectory serves national interests rather than being subject to external powers.
With Iraq at the fulcrum of the Middle East, paying attention to the status of US presence in Iraq will be crucial to defining the trajectory of the region.
Credit for the catchy title goes to u/SerendipitouslySane.
Saudi is the Center of Gravity of the Mid-East
Saudi Arabia is the center of gravity in the Middle East when it comes to defense and military spending. Accounting for 50% of the military expenditure for the entire region, the Kingdom has established itself as a major military power. The Saudi military budget for 2022 was estimated to be around $56 billion, making it the third-largest military spender in the world. Saudi spends 3x more than the next biggest spender in the region, Israel, and 7x more than the next biggest spenders Kuwait and Qatar. Saudi’s military budget is more that 10 times that of Iran.
The Kingdom has invested heavily in the development of advanced missile defense systems, such as the Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems, to protect its critical infrastructure and population centers. Additionally, the Saudi military has a significant arsenal of anti-tank weapons, including modern main battle tanks and armored vehicles, to counter any ground threats.
Despite its significant military capabilities, Saudi Arabia relies on the support of the United States for its defense and security. A significant portion of the Saudi military budget goes towards renting protection from the US. Saudi Arabia has also committed to purchasing large amounts of military equipment from the United States, including fighter jets, tanks, and missile defense systems. This has created a significant source of revenue for the US military-industrial complex, but it has also raised questions about the long-term sustainability of the Saudi military's capabilities and independence.
Saudi-Iran Detente Leaves Iraq in the Lurch
The détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran culminating in the March 2023 announcement has significantly shifted the balance of power in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia appearing to concede Iraq to Iranian influence by pulling support for political and militia forces. This shift has allowed Iran-backed militias, known collectively as the muqawama, to gain significant control over Iraq's political, military, and judicial landscapes. Despite challenges, such as the elimination of key muqawama figures and setbacks in the 2021 elections, the muqawama has effectively navigated the political terrain, securing government funding for the Popular Mobilization Forces and even appointing the prime minister. Take a look at our previous piece for a closer look on this.
Saudi Arabia, with it’s military superiority over Tehran, appears to be comfortable with this arrangement, having withdrawn support for Iraqi leader al-Sadr and other groups opposed to Iran. This was evident when Ammar al-Hakim, a key player in the Iran-aligned coalition, visited Saudi Arabia seeking support to pressure Muqtada Sadr, a Iraqi political figure opposed to Iran’s influence, to back down from his bid for leadership in 2021. Saudi Arabia is taking a more cautious and neutral approach to Iraq's domestic affairs, and focusing on it’s own interests.
What Has Tehran Achieved in its Regional Agenda Since Oct 7?
Invasion of Gaza has Deepened the Divide with Israel/US
Since the invasion, views of the US have significantly worsened, with 94% of Arabs taking a negative view of the American position in the war. Conversely, only 27% of Arabs evaluate the Iranian position in the war as negative while 48% view Iran’s position positively. Additionally, 40-50% of people in Arab countries believe that Western countries expressed support for Israel because of “their hatred for Islam”. This widespread disapproval of US policy towards Palestine and the high perception of Israel as a threat highlight significant challenges for regional diplomacy and underscore the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Support for Israel Recognition Lower, Particularly in Saudi
The Palestinian cause remains a unifying issue, with 76% of respondents asserting its importance to all Arabs, not just Palestinians. This widespread solidarity emphasizes the potential for the Palestinian issue to serve as a unifying or divisive factor in regional politics.
Half of those open to recognizing Israel condition their acceptance on the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, highlighting the centrality of the Palestinian issue in Arab Israeli relations. Criticisms against Israel, citing colonial, expansionist policies, and racism towards Palestinians, dominate the reasons for opposing diplomatic recognition.
The prospect of recognizing Israel remains overwhelmingly unpopular, with 84% disapproving of their countries formalizing diplomatic ties with Israel. Notably 57% of respondents in Saudi Arabia declined to respond which alludes to (هيبة) fear and respect toward the Kingdoms stated goals of normalization with Israel. However, after the invasion of Gaza, only 29% of Saudi’s were unsure with the majority opposed.
Iran Scored Seats in Iraq’s Provincial Elections
In the recent 2023 provincial elections in Iraq, the Shia Coalition Framework (CF), a conglomerate of Shia groups aligned with Iran, secured a significant victory by winning 101 of the 285 available council seats. This election, held across all of Iraq's governorates on December 18, marks a considerable step towards consolidating Iran-aligned influence ahead of the parliamentary election scheduled for 2025. The CF's success in most of the country's southern provinces, including Baghdad, reflects a shifting balance of power within Iraq, where factions close to Iran have been gaining ground. The Shia Coalition Framework's achievement in obtaining the largest bloc of votes solidifies their position as a dominant force in Iraq's political landscape, further supported by their backing of the current government under Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.
Pressure for Exit of US Military Presence
The presence of U.S. troops in Iraq allows for close monitoring of regional dynamics and Iranian militia activities. While their deployment can make them targets for attacks, they serve as observation outposts that afford the U.S. a vantage point to counteract Iranian-aligned militia operations. Acting as a deterrent, they also allow the U.S. to execute targeted actions against militia leaders who become overly aggressive or claim responsibility for attacks against U.S. interests. This strategy helps maintain a measure of control over Iranian militia activities and curtails their expansion.
American Violence Alienates the Local Population
The recent drone strike by an Iran-backed militia on a base in northeast Jordan resulted in the deaths of three U.S. service members, leading to U.S. precision strikes against militia targets in Syria and Iraq. However, growing popular support for U.S. withdrawal from the region raises questions about the long-term sustainability of American military engagements in the Middle East.
Shia Militia Leaders Add Pressure for US Withdrawal
Shia militia leaders in Iraq have intensified their calls for the withdrawal of U.S. forces, leveraging local sentiment and political pressure in the aftermath of American military actions on Iraqi soil. Following U.S. strikes, these militias vocally denounce American interventions, rallying the local population against what they perceive as unwarranted foreign aggression. Incidents of hostility towards foreign journalists, such as the BBC team being rebuffed by locals at the site of an attack, underscore the deep-seated resentment towards foreign presence "You are foreigners, and foreigners are to blame for this".
“We strongly condemn the heinous crime committed by the criminal American forces, by targeting one of the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces in the capital, Baghdad, this day, by assassinating the martyr Commander Abu Taqwa Al-Saeedi and his companions.
We also hold the Iraqi government responsible for any disregard or laxity in the serious demand for the immediate removal of the so-called international coalition forces from Iraqi soil… We confirm our previous positions on this presence, which has become a threat to the security and safety of the Iraqi people, and an infringement blatantly against Iraqi sovereignty." Hadi al-Amiri INA News, Iraq state media
Gulf Countries Limiting Support for US Attacks from Their Bases
In the Gaza conflict of 2023, Arab governments found themselves navigating a delicate balance between quelling domestic outrage against Israel and supporting Washington's efforts to counter Iranian-backed assaults. This geopolitical tightrope walk led to increased restrictions on U.S. military operations from Arab territories. Particularly in the case of the UAE, these measures stem from a desire to avoid antagonizing Iran and to maintain a moderate stance in the eyes of the international community and their own citizens, wary of being perceived as too aligned with Western and Israeli interests. This strategic positioning is nothing new for GCC states in balancing the interplay of regional diplomacy, security concerns, and public sentiment, juggling their internal and external commitments amidst escalating violence and civilian casualties in Gaza.
Amid a rising civilian death toll in Gaza, several Arab countries, particularly those “attempting a detente with Iran,” are “increasingly restricting” the U.S. and partners from conducting self-defense operations from their soil, according to the U.S. official. This includes limits on retaliatory strikes against attacks in Iraq, Syria, and the Red Sea, the official said.
…The reason the UAE in particular is doing this, per one of the Western officials, is “they don’t want to appear like they’re against Iran and they don’t want to appear too close to the West and Israel for public opinion reasons.” POLITICO
The Gulf War of 1990-1991 was a stark contrast to the 2023 Gaza conflict in terms of Arab states' engagement with and support for U.S. military operations. During the Gulf War, Arab governments, particularly those from oil-rich Persian Gulf states, were major contributors to the coalition effort against Iraq, both financially and logistically. These states covered a significant portion of the operation's costs, with Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and others contributing billions of dollars. This financial support significantly offset the expenses borne by the United States, which, despite deploying the majority of troops, incurred just about 12% of the total costs.
This collective action reflected a unified stance against Saddam’s aggression and a willingness to openly support U.S. leadership in the conflict. A scary throwback for Iranian revisionists. In contrast, the cautious approach of Arab states in the Gaza conflict of 2023 is marked by a hesitancy to facilitate U.S. military actions due to concerns over Iranian relations and public opinion, but again this is nothing new for the GCC.
Caught Between Iraq and a Hard Place
The media reporting on the withdrawal of US troop presence in Iraq has been schizophrenic, largely because communications out of Iraq have been unclear. Iraq's Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has stated the need for a strategic reassessment of Iraq's relationship with U.S.-led forces. This re-evaluation is underscored by U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iran-linked militant groups followed by the increasing calls, from Shi'ite factions within Iraq, for the withdrawal of the U.S. coalition.
Senior advisers to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani told U.S. officials that his declaration was “an attempt to satisfy domestic political audiences” and that Sudani himself “remained committed” to negotiating the coalition’s future presence in Iraq, according to a Jan. 6 State Department cable obtained by POLITICO, Iraqi officials privately signal they want US forces to stay, 9th Jan 2024.
Following the above leak reported by Politico, al-Sudani spoke at Davos a few weeks later and contradicted what was reported by stating that it was his will and the will of the Iraqi people that the US forces withdraw as soon as possible. After leaks from al-Sudani’s government to reassure US partners that withdrawal talks were all political theatre, al-Sudani commented at Davos where he backtracked on the leaks. The Pentagon statements have indicated that there is no current plan to withdraw the roughly 2,500 U.S. troops from Iraq, however, focus groups have started meetings between Iraqi and US officials to arrange a withdrawal.
John Harris, Politico Founding Editor: I've been confused as I've read the news stories about your response to the recent U.S. drone strike that killed an Iranian target in Baghdad. It looked like you had reached the conclusion it was time for all U.S. troops to leave Iraq. I've later seen news stories saying that's not your position. Could you clarify what your position on that is?
Mohammed Shi’a al-Sudani: Indeed, one of the challenges in Iraq is that we don't have a proper picture of what is happening. Some agencies, even your agency lately, tend to take news, and we don't know how correct, how accurate the information that is referred to… Iraq's government and people are respectful and appreciate the position of the International Community, which contributed along with the Iraqi people to defeat ISIS…The other issue now is the justification of the presence of the Allies of the coalitions is to face and fight ISIS… ISIS is no longer a threat to the Iraqi people… Now, the preparedness of our army is clear, and it is a sign of stability and a guarantee to safeguard the situation in Iraq. Based on these indicators, we started to implement a commitment made by the ministry council to negotiate with the coalition to discuss how to finish this mission in Iraq. That was the aim of the delegation of our visit in 2023 to the US, to set up a bilateral group to implement the withdrawal of the coalition. A Conversation with Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, Prime Minister of Iraq | Davos 2024 | WEF
Manufacturing Support for Full US Withdrawal from Iraq
The Iraqi government crafted a text message poll sent to Iraqi citizens on January 9, inquiring about their support for the Coalition's presence, which smacked more of Iranian political theatre than a genuine attempt to gauge public opinion. The subsequent announcement of forming a committee to discuss withdrawal further exemplifies the often-ineffectual nature of Iraqi bureaucracy, raising questions about the government's commitment to actualizing this policy shift. Despite the Shia militia and popular support for U.S. withdrawal, the steps taken by al-Sudani's government suggest a lack of urgency and calculated delay tactics.
Mohammed Shia al-Sudani: Now, what happened on October 7th stopped the meetings that were in line, and today, after the aggressions happening on Iraqi positions, we have to start the discussion on how the international coalition moves from Iraq and then have bilateral partnerships with regional countries. We are a sovereign country, and therefore it is only natural that we move towards this position, as it's a request from the people and a democratic country.
John Harris: You're reflecting the wishes of the people, but in terms of your personal priorities as prime minister, is your position the sooner, the better, or do you feel the transition should take place purposefully and not necessarily on any set timeline?
Mohammed Shia al-Sudani: Indeed, yes, I believe that the sooner we withdraw the coalition, it is a necessity for the stability and security of Iraq and to safeguard constructive bilateral relationships between Iraq and the countries of the coalition. This is my position as a prime minister, it is not the position of any other body. It is myself directly. Mohammed Shia al-Sudani interview at Davos
Despite Tehran’s Pressure, Iraq Needs US Forces
Iraq’s Shia Warlords
Hadi Al-Amiri is a case that highlights the intricate landscape of Iraq-Iran relations. From being born in Iraq, to siding with Iranian forces in the Iran-Iraq War. This shift laid the groundwork for his involvement in political and military spheres, culminating in the creation of the Badr Organization while in Iran. The organization, with strong ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), played a crucial role in post-2003 Iraq, reinforcing Iran's influence in the region. Al-Amiri has styled himself as a revolutionary leader of an independent Iraq. When asked a question about living in Iran and influencing Iraqi politics, al-Amiri responded with the below:
أثناء حرب التحرير الأمريكية، كان الفرنسيون يساعدونكم. ساعدكم الفرنسيون كثيرًا في حربكم ضد الإنكليز. هل بهذا أصبحتم عملاء للفرنسيين؟ سأشبّه لك حالنا بما حدث لديكم. نحن، الفصائل أو الميليشيات أو أيًا ما كان المسمى، أشبه بالآباء المؤسسين في "أمريكا". نحن مثلهم.
During the American War of Independence, the French were helping you. The French greatly assisted you in your war against the English. Does this make you agents of the French? I will compare our situation to what happened with you. We, the factions or militias or whatever the name may be, are similar to the Founding Fathers in "America." We are like them.
هادي الأميري Hadi al-Amiri, Leader of Iranian Militias in Iraq
Leaders Without Personal Militias are Vulnerable
Under Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's administration, the budget for Iraq in 2023 soared to a record $152 billion, significantly benefitting the public sector and, notably, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a state-sponsored umbrella organization comprising mostly Shia militia groups. The PMF, which Al-Amiri has been closely associated with, received a substantial allocation of $2.7 billion, enabling a dramatic increase in its ranks from 122,000 to 238,000 personnel. The PMF now outnumbers the regular armed forces of Iraq of about 200,000 soldiers.
The rise of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq and Iran aligned politicians (see Tehran wants control of Iraq, not Gaza) has raised concerns about the balance of power within the country and the role of influence from Iran. With the PMF surpassing the size of Iraq's regular armed forces, questions arise about the implications for Iraq's future stability and security landscape. Reports suggest that individuals within the Ministry of Oil are seeking patronage from militia leaders in order to advance their careers, highlighting the growing influence of militias within the Iraqi government. This has led to a situation where militia leaders have become the de facto authority in many areas, with the state's security forces often serving as their personal militias. The PMF's growing power and influence raises concerns about the potential for Iranian-backed terrorist organizations to capture the Iraqi state.
“The boss cannot protect them, so they seek a patron, to make their own top cover. The lesson we have all learned under al-Sudani is that you need a militia protector—all the way from minister to director-generals, commission managers, and department heads.” Another 2023 interviewee from Ministry of Oil noted: “They look at every [director-general] and put them on probation. If they have a militia, they leave them alone, but if they don’t, they remove them” Iraq’s New Regime Change: How Tehran-Backed Terrorist Organizations and Militias Captured the Iraqi State, CTC
Moderate Politicians Benefit from Stability Provided by US Troops
Neutral nationalist politicians in Iraq find an unexpected ally in the stability that U.S. troops provide. While Shia militias seek greater autonomy to expand their influence, the moderate politicians aim to temper the escalation of conflict and prevent any single faction from monopolizing power. Sunni and Kurdish communities, in particular, advocate for the continued presence of U.S. forces as a counterbalance to the dominance of the Shia majority. The maintenance of U.S. military presence serves multiple interests, offering a semblance of equilibrium that benefits those seeking a unified, pluralistic Iraq.
Controlling Violence in Iraq is an Unpopular Job
Forces have gained control over ISIS, but the Iraqi government currently does not have credible control of violence on their own territory. Turkish forces stationed in northern Iraq continue to engage Kurdish positions, mirroring Iranian military actions against the same groups. Meanwhile, Shia paramilitaries outnumber Iraqi national forces and clash with the U.S. military presence, creating a fragmented landscape of authority and power.
The US is taking a leaf out of Saddam’s book in using the stick against militant Shia factions and extending carrots to their moderate counterparts. The Iraqi foreign minister Tariq Aziz said in the 1980s “If there are those in this country who seek martyrdom, my government is prepared to accommodate them – all of them”. Biden and US presidents since 2010 have effectively employed the Teddy Roosevelt Big Stick version of this ideology - U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, January 2024 “They have a lot of capability; I have a lot more.”
29th of Jan, three US service members were killed and 40 were injured by Shia militia, Kataib Hezbollah.
31st of Jan, Kataib Hezbollah said it was suspending attacks on American troops to prevent "embarrassment" to the Iraqi government.
7th of Feb, Abu Baqir al-Saadi, a commander in Kataib Hezbollah was killed in a US drone strike.
The broader context of Saddam Hussein's rule over Iraq provides a historical lens through which the current dynamics can be viewed. Saddam's regime, despite its brutal tactics, managed to maintain stability within Iraq, balancing the suppression of dissent with strategic ethnic politics. Harkening back to our previous article, most Iraqis view life under Saddam as better than today. Keeping a forceful lid on sectarian violence is worth it to Iraqi’s. Just ask Hobbes: "The only way to avoid this war of all against all is to establish a common power to keep them all in awe." (Leviathan, Part II, Chapter XXVII)
Iraq Parliament Vote on US Withdrawal Flopped
On the 11th of Feb the Iraqi parliament gathered to vote for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and it was a complete flop. All Sunni representatives abstained, all but two Kurdish reps abstained and nearly 100 members of the Shia Coordination Framework, a dominant political bloc, abstained from voting. Only 82 SCF members out of 329 members of parliament showed up. This abstinence from voting to remove US forces underscores the consensus among Iraqi lawmakers for the U.S. military to stay in Iraq. The abstention reveals a tacit acknowledgment of the stabilizing role played by U.S. forces amid the country's ongoing challenges with militia influence and sectarian divisions.
Warlords Constrained to Racketeering, For Now
In Iraq, the pervasive influence of warlords and their militias manifests through activities such as racketeering, engaging in significant property deals, utilizing shell companies for financial maneuvers, and siphoning off the country's oil wealth. Despite these underhanded dealings, the Iraqi parliament continues to function in the interests of the nation, suggesting a complex interplay between overt political processes and the shadowy dynamics of power wielded by these warlords. This dichotomy reflects the challenges facing Iraq in its efforts to establish a cohesive state governance model while being pulled in different directions by the vested interests of these powerful factions, each carving out their own spheres of influence at the expense of national cohesion and development.
US Withdrawal Timeline, Conditions and Key Takeaways
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Zen on Tech to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.